While many predicted an end-of-year lull due to seasonality, inflation, and hefty interest rates increases, that was not the case in November. Exceeding expectations, employment expanded by a resilient 263,000 jobs last month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly jobs report. Hiring was seen across the board with gains in leisure and hospitality, healthcare, and more. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held at 3.7% for the second consecutive month.
Despite these solid job numbers, the question is: How much longer can the job market hold on? According to the BLS monthly jobs report, the labor force participation rate ticked down slightly from 62.2% to 62.1% last month. Not to mention, the Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover survey (JOLTs) showed that job openings edged down nearly 4% to 10.3 million in October. Here’s a breakdown of the latest job numbers along with key takeaways to help employers plan for the months ahead.
Cheers to Hiring in Bars and Restaurants
Santa came early this year, bringing a sleigh full of jobs to bars and restaurants in November. Leading the way in hiring in the BLS monthly jobs report, the leisure and hospitality sector saw gains of 88,000 with bars and restaurants benefiting from the bulk of the job growth.
Monster job numbers show similar results. Over the past month, the top active jobs hiring in bars and restaurants include:
- Cooks
- Food preparation and serving workers (including fast food)
- Waiters and waitresses
From the candidate side, top job searches within the category include:
- Server
- Bartender
- Cook
While it’s great to see growth in an industry that undoubtedly took one of the biggest hits at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leisure and hospitality still has a long way to go. Currently 980,000 jobs (5.8%) below its February 2020 level, the hiring momentum we saw last year in bars and restaurants has significantly slowed even though COVID-19 restrictions have subsided and life has returned to a more “normal” state. To put it into perspective, the industry has averaged only 82,000 jobs per month so far in 2022…less than half of the average gain of 196,000 jobs per month in 2021.
Monster economist Giacomo Santangelo attributes this deceleration largely to inflation. “The cost of gasoline and general inflation is cutting into people’s ability to spend more on leisure,” he says.
Temperature Check: Healthcare Job Market Remains Hot
After suffering a major labor crisis in 2021, hiring in healthcare has been solid in the latter half of 2022 as employment continued to expand in November. With gains of 45,000 seen in the BLS monthly jobs report, healthcare employment has increased by an average of 47,000 in 2022 compared to 9,000 in 2021.
Looking ahead, Santangelo expects this growth to continue into 2023 and beyond. “The hiring will continue until the job demand is filled,” he says. “Until that happens, we can expect a hot market for healthcare workers with high pay and benefits to attract workers.” In fact, it’s estimated that the sector will need 1.2 million new registered nurses by 2030.
On Monster, demand for healthcare workers continued over the past month as well, particularly for nurses. While “registered nurse” was the #1 active job hiring overall in November, other top active job ads included:
- Nursing assistants
- Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses
With benefits and wages increasing in healthcare, Monster data also showed continued interest in the category from job seekers. Some of the top healthcare job searches over the past month were for:
- Registered nurse
- Medical assistant
- LPN (licensed practical/vocational nurse)
There’s a Ho-Ho-Hold Up in Retail and Transportation Hiring
Despite the overall solid job numbers in the BLS monthly report, job losses were reported in retail (-30,000) and transportation and warehousing (-15,000). Typically, this season of gift buying and giving sparks a hiring frenzy within these two industries as firms bulk up workforces for the holiday rush. But, as we’re seeing, holiday hiring hasn’t been the same this year. By mid-November, companies had announced plans of hiring just 592,400 seasonal jobs — a 37% decrease compared to last year.
“With new potential supply chain issues on the horizon, given China’s difficulty with their ‘zero-COVID policy’ and recent uncertainty with the U.S. rail situation, firms are being cautious,” Santangelo says. “We also cannot forget that retailers learned how to be profitable during the 2020 holiday lockdown with fewer workers.”
Monster job numbers, on the other hand, were more positive. When looking at the top ten active job postings overall in November, we couldn’t help but notice a few positions hiring in retail, transportation, and warehousing. These include:
- Customer service representative (#2 overall)
- Heavy and tractor-trailer trucker drives (#4 overall)
- Stock clerks – stockroom, warehouse, or storage yard (#7 overall)
- Retail salespersons (#9 overall)
Meanwhile, Monster data also shows candidates looking for work that may be holiday oriented. Some of the top keywords searched by candidates in November include:
- Part-time (#4 overall)
- Customer service (#5 overall)
- Retail (#9 overall)
Tech Layoffs Could Trickle to Other Industries
According to the recent JOLTs report, the number of total layoffs and discharges increased slightly in October to 1.4 million. While the bulk of layoffs reported in the JOLTs report wasn’t concentrated in any particular industry, it’s been hard to ignore recent headlines of big tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Salesforce, and more, reducing headcount.
“It is likely that tech is just the first to institute layoffs,” Santangelo says. “We should expect more layoff announcements at more firms as the new year arrives. Firms are aware of the impending recession. Not only is consumer confidence down, but also CEO confidence. If you think the ship is taking on water, you don’t take on more passengers. You force them to embark while you wait for the water to stop leaking into the boat.”
Consumer Prices Continue to Outpace Wage Growth
High inflation has driven large pay increases month over month in 2022. November was no different. According to the BLS monthly jobs report, average hourly wages increased by 18 cents (0.6%) to $32.82. Over the past 12 months, wages have increased by 5.1%, while consumer prices have risen at a much faster pace (7.7%) year over year.
“As long as the cost of living is growing faster than wages, the average worker will experience decreases in their standard of living,” Santangelo says. “That being said, there’s only so much that a firm can raise wages before they are forced to pass that increase in labor costs onto the consumer.”
Over the past several months, the Federal Reserve has enacted a number of hefty interest rate hikes aimed to combat inflation and slow the job market. Reports indicate that rates will continue to rise and remain elevated through 2023. We will continue to monitor the impact of these interest rate increases in the months ahead.
Stay Tuned for the Next Monthly Jobs Report
Monster aims to provide employers with the insight needed to move forward. As you plan your hiring strategy over the next month, download Monster’s Q4 Jobs Report to help you end the year strong.
We’ll see you again in January when we’ll release our next take on the monthly jobs report.